← Distorted Reflections Store Championship
Water Crux MageTier 2
at Distorted Reflections Store Championship
decks
1
(5.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
1-3-2
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
35.1%
avg ELO -7.9 per match
expected value
43.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
41.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1642
· median 1642
· range 1642–1642
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1159
Q1 1331
Q3 1467
1642
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 29.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 40.4% | -9.2 |
| Fire Suited | 11.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.4 |
| Horse and Taxes | 11.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 5.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
